genuine verdict

Lost Oak, originally uploaded by trekr.

We lost another White Oak this Spring to Hypoxylon canker. The sawdust in the foreground is the ground up stump. The bare patch of grass is where the kid’s swing used to hang. Surprisingly, the limb the swing hung from was the last part of the tree to succumb to disease. The arborist that felled the tree tied the swing to a sturdy limb in a nearby tree. I guess everyone remembers their favorite childhood swing. When the tree you are swinging from falls, its time to find a new tree.

DSCN8162, originally uploaded by trekr.

I’ve been too lazy to mow the back yard, and today it is too wet. The kids found this single flower in the middle of the yard. Somebody said it’s trillium. A reward for my procrastination.

DSCN8161, originally uploaded by trekr.

I hadn’t made a pie in some fifteen years. Last weekend I taught my oldest how. Not bad for a first pair of pies. Oh yes, they were very tasty !

DSCN8149, originally uploaded by trekr.

The Japanese honeysuckle is considered an invasive plant. Here in Texas, it is quite easy to control. The flowers are sweet to taste. This photo makes a great wallpaper, enjoy !

DSCN7968, originally uploaded by trekr.

Something that will never be a commodity because they are nearly completely useless unless you care to appreciate each one for its uniqueness. Like roses, individuals cannot be commodities. Each is uniquely created.

DSCN5295, originally uploaded by trekr.

I should have said more in my last post about how a skill may become a commodity.

Standards, tools, and for that matter, any advance in the art that constrains the allowable solutions such that the output of different practitioners is undifferentiated, leads to commoditization. For example, a hand saw requires more skill to use than a circular saw. However, anyone with reasonable competence can cut wood more than good enough with a circular saw. For most cuts it doesn’t matter that the handsaw is more precise in the hands of an expert.

There are many great photographers now that we have digital cameras. The technical aspects of film type, shutter speed, focus, lighting, are hidden from the user. However likely it is that a skilled photographer can do more with film, even the pros have switched to digital cameras for most of their photography.

Java programmers don’t need to master memory management or even know what a pointer is. Fundamental algorithms are now in libraries. Most programmers will never need to implement a sorting routine. Does Java constrain the expressiveness of the programmer? Certainly, but not in ways their customers care about.

In some sense all tools abstract and hide details. That is the power of the tool. One need not master the details to successfully use the tool to solve a problem. In order to hide, you must constrain yourself to a hiding place. If your hiding place is big enough, it’s good enough.

The process of commoditization is a net benefit for most of us. It is difficult when your skill becomes a commodity and you need to make a transition. Hopefully, these incomplete thoughts will give you some insight into how to see when its about to happen to you.

The other day an IT professional in charge of staffing for his company said to me, "All labor is a commodity, including the CEO".  "Including the labor of doing your job?", I asked.  "Absolutely, of course", he said.  A lot of IT jobs have become commodities and work is moving offshore.  It got me thinking, what is a commodity in the labor market?  How do you avoid competing in a commodity market ?

A job is a commodity when enough people can do it good enough that employers choose the lowest cost laborer.   The key here is good enough.  Performing a job better than the competition doesn’t matter when better means more than good enough.  Are all jobs commodities ?  No, take the CEO as an example.  CEO pay keeps going up.  The worse CEO’s do, the faster their pay goes up (as a group).  Instead of complaining about CEO pay, assume it is rational and ask why are compensation committees willing to pay.  It is because the job is getting harder, and fewer are capable or willing to do it.  The lesson is clear.  Try to work on the hardest most consequential problems you can find.

DSCN7724, originally uploaded by trekr.

I’ve seen some fast dogs, but nothing like this greyhound. It must be part cat. Light, graceful and blazingly fast. Matt took this photo and it turned out pretty cool. The dog’s name is Sadie and she’s from a foster family that rescue’s pure bred Italian greyhounds from pounds.

DSCN7716, originally uploaded by trekr.

The change of seasons in Texas sometimes last only days, or so it seems. In the last few weeks we’ve had record high temperatures, overnight freezes and nine inches of rain. The return of the mallards is a sure sign that spring is near. I’m hoping for some ducklings this year. We’ll see …

DSCN7424, originally uploaded by trekr.

This is the first year the tree has bloomed ! I’m expecting tremendous growth this year … stay tuned !

Suppose you are a hiring manager with a goal to make sure that the person you hire has some special quality called IT. IT can be anything you like. You have developed an interview technique in which the chance of success for a candidate that has IT is 95% and the chance of success for a candidate who does not have IT is only 5%. Suppose that amongst the general population of qualified candidates, only 5% have IT. After all you only hire the top 5% like everyone else, right ? What is the probability that a candidate who does not have IT will be selected ? Surprisingly, 50%, the same chance as a candidate who has IT. For example, suppose it is possible for you to interview 100 candidates. Only 5 have it and you will correctly identify all 5 of them (I’m rounding up). Ninety-five do not have it, yet you will also identify 5 from this group as having IT.

Now suppose IT is really rare and only 1% of the qualified candidates have IT. However, you are better at testing for IT so you can identify those with IT 99% of the time and you can also identify those without IT 99% of the time. The end result is the same as the first example, the probability of selecting a candidate without IT is 50%, you pick 1 from each group. Put another way, the probability that any candidate has IT is 1% prior to the interview but the interpretation of the probability rises to 50% after the interview, regardless of whether they have IT or not.

In both cases, the probability of a false negative was high relative to the prior probability of having IT.  If however, we take the candidates identified as having IT from the first interviewer and a second interviewer with equal skill screens them, then the odds of correctly identifying a candidate with IT are greatly improved because we start with a 50% probability that the candidates have IT.

The next time you are tempted to brag about being a great interviewer capable of finding the very best, keep the thought at Bayes and employ a process of sequential, multiple interviews to improve your odds.

DSCN7150, originally uploaded by trekr.

The Louisianna Waterthrush are back from their migration. This one just let himself in. Almost a year has gone by since I photographed their nest outside our back door. That makes 2005 a year for the birds as far as I’m concerned.

DSCN6120, originally uploaded by trekr.

The family was featured in Mother Earth News lately in a feature entitled "Why We Dig Gardening". Mother Earth does not have an online version of the article so you’ll have to go buy a copy to read about all the families and their gardens. We didn’t win the contest but it was fun to see us in the magazine. Yours truly was the photographer and I would have ruined the picture anywhere but behind the camera. After all the magazine is called "Mother Earth News".

DSCN6495, originally uploaded by trekr.

so little difference between the beginning and end of a day, but its always one day that makes a difference

DSCN6515, originally uploaded by trekr.

A beautiful December morning !

DSCN5931, originally uploaded by trekr.

I caught this cicada hanging on its exuvium this morning. You rarely see this because it usually happens at night.

DSCN5864, originally uploaded by trekr.

This tree just keeps growing! It has easily doubled its height this summer. We’ll need a few more winters to determine if its viable in north Texas.

DSCN5773, originally uploaded by trekr.

Now I know. This looks like the most impossible and uncomfortable place to sleep. But this little bird has perched in the same spot for the last week. I’ve never been able to photograph him because early in the evening he flies away when the back porch door is opened. But last night, I stayed up late and woke him up for a portrait. I believe this is one of the baby birds that hatched in the flower pot on our back porch this spring. From the nest he probably became comfortable with looking out at the ceiling. I suppose that this spot is somewhat similar to their natural habitat of exposed roots on overhanging stream banks. I’m curious if the sound of water from our fountain draws them to the porch.

DSCN5571, originally uploaded by trekr.

Chiltepin is the official native pepper of Texas. (Legislators have to write laws about something, its their job.) Sometimes called the bird pepper because birds have dispersed the seeds from Mexico to the southwestern states. Its super hot, and my favorite pepper because the bite is sharp but it dissipates readily so your mouth won’t burn long. Great on eggs and rice. The first harvest is usually in August and they keep coming until the first strong frost. In my part of Texas, they freeze back but the roots survive and the plant comes back more vigorous every year. This is a photo of my oldest plant, already with the first peppers set! Its going to be a good year if this keeps up! Email me if you’d like some seeds from this year’s harvest.

A pair of owls has taken up residence in our neighborhood. I know the owls are here because every morning about 4 am they start calling to each other from the tall pines just outside my bedroom window. Its loud. It wakes me up. When the sun rises, the crows begin to protest the presence of the owls. The other day I watched three crows relentlessly dive on an owl perched near the top of a pine tree. The crows made a terrible racket, but there was not a sound from the owl. When the owl took flight, it quickly caught the wind and soared aloft. As the owl rose higher, the crows gave up. There is something to be learned from watching the conflict between owls and crows. When a crow comes after you, rise above him and keep peace in yourself.

DSCN5387, originally uploaded by trekr.

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."  – Excerpt from the notebooks of Lazarus Long, from Robert Heinlein’s "Time Enough for Love"

I’ve been in Texas a long time and haven’t seen too many praying mantis. I found this baby praying mantis in the hawthorne bushes. Its not more than a quarter of an inch long.

As a kid growing up in Ohio, this was our favorite insect to catch because it requires a bit of skill to pinch them before they pinch you! In the fall, we would release them in my mother’s garden so that they would build their egg pods in the shrubs around the house.

Today I heard it again.  "Our software team is very passionate, and we work seventy hours a week".  Well, I don’t believe it.  Besides, its not a good idea to try to consistently work seventy hours a week. 

I once read a story about a woodcarver that decided to work late to finish carving a detail in the face of a statue he had been working on for months.  Even though he had worked a full day and was tired, he wanted to finish just this one last thing before he left for the day.   His chisel was dull and wasn’t cutting well, so he pushed a little harder and suddenly cut out a large gouge that ruined the entire piece.  After that experience, he vowed never to do the last thing.   (If you know the origin of this story please help me with the attribution).

Knowing the story didn’t stop me from doing the last thing until one day after adding some functionality, I broke the entire software build.   I called my wife around 4 p.m. and told her I’d be an hour late.   Then I loaded up the debugger and started stepping through the code.   It seemed like in just a few minutes she was calling me back asking where I was.  I looked at my watch, it was 8 p.m.  That was literally, the 13th hour.   I was tired and making mistakes.  So I went home, and the next morning, I solved the problem in the first 20 minutes I was at work.   The power of the subconscious I suppose.  After that, I vowed, "Never do the last thing".

If you are a manager, ask yourself, do you really want someone carving on the face at the end of the day ?   Yet in the software business there is almost a cult-like ethos of the endless string of all nighters.   I suppose this isn’t limited only to the software industry, but that’s why we are afraid of the hospital.

I’m not impressed when creative people claim they work seventy hours a week, consistently.   For that to be true, you have to count a lot of non-productive time like reading emails, lunches and dinners, overnight travel, commuting, meetings you don’t need to be in, smoke and joke at the water cooler, browsing, blogging, etc.   We’d all be better off if we were more honest about what work is and how many hours we really "work", because then we’d have more realistic expectations of the people we lead.   I estimate that in a solid eight hour workday,  if you can average five hours of quality work, you’re doing well.  In fact, it is a significant challenge for managers to create a work environment that allows engineers to have those five hours free of meetings and other interruptions.

In the mid nineties I worked for a company that implemented policies that did allow at least five solid hours a day.  The first policy change was the concept of a time bank.  No sick days, or vacation.  If you didn’t log 40 hours at work, the difference came out of your time bank.   The policy was based on two observations backed by data.   A large number of exempt employees were not even physically present 40 hours a week, and a small minority was working excessive hours and had a higher voluntary attrition rate.  In addition, our customer had begun to adjust proposals for future work based on historical actuals.   So "free" overtime wasn’t free anymore, it was a handicap.  At the same time, the company instituted the concept of core hours, from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m., and required that you notify your supervisor if you weren’t going to be available during core hours.   Meetings were also limited to core hours only and required 24 hour notice if it wasn’t a standing meeting.  Finally, managers were held accountable for earned value relative to the hours expended.  Productivity actually increased with these policy changes.   Its easy to understand why.  There were less meetings, but everyone was there and on time.  There were less mistakes, because people weren’t tired.   Our ability to stay on schedule improved because we were measuring.  Everyone was happier.

I believe when we create a culture that pressures people to pretend that they work the mythical seventy hours a week, we actually get much less.   Why is it that people that claim they work seventy hours a week never finish anything early ?   Its simple, they didn’t plan to finish early.  And that’s the crux of the whole matter.   Teams that fall into this trap of kidding themselves that everyone is working a seventy hour week are poorly managed.   That’s my genuine verdict.

DSCN2080, originally uploaded by trekr.

One of the joys of spring is the flowers. These Clematis were transplanted from our old house over eight years ago. Every year, they pop out of the vines along the fence for a few weeks before the heat puts them into a serious hurt. By the way, this photo makes a great wallpaper on your PC. Check out my photos on Flickr of the other flowers Jacqui and the girls have planted around the yard.

DSCN5294, originally uploaded by trekr.

One of the benefits of avoiding the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides on our property is the presence of a large number of toads, frogs, lizards, and salamanders. They help keep the insects in check and create a balance that’s easier to live with then the chemical warfare alternative. The amphibions seem to be the first effected by chemicals because their skin readily absorbs the toxins. So when I see them in abundance, I don’t worry about the kids playing in the grass and dirt.

This is a Gulf Coast toad that I photographed yesterday in the flower bed near the back porch. Notice the distinctive ridge forming a valley between the eyes. The Gulf Coast toad can grow to four to five inches. This one was about three.

DSCN5242, originally uploaded by trekr.

"Ideas are like rabbits. You get a couple and learn how to handle them, and pretty soon you have a dozen." – John Steinbeck

For the first time in my working life, I own my ideas. Since they are mine, I’ve decided I’ll share a few on these pages in the coming days. It’ll be a change from the nature posts you’ve been seeing, so fair warning is due.

Now this little rabbit has been living in our garden. He finds a nice home there because we failed to weed the garden where it hasn’t been planted. The weeds are several feet high and provide a nice place to hide and some shade as well. Yesterday, Jacqui harvested the garlic and found an area laid flat by the rabbits nest. This rabbit and I have made our acquaintence over the past several days, so I was able to get within five yards to take this photo.

DSCN5183, originally uploaded by trekr.

It’s summer. We hit record temperatures earlier this week, 98 degrees. That’s what I love about Texas weather. There is only a one day transition from spring to summer. If you’re indoors all day, you might miss it.

DSCN5161, originally uploaded by trekr.

All three of the remaining Louisiana Waterthrush hatchlings left the nest this morning, twelve days after hatching. I was in and out the back door frequently this morning while repairing my lawn mower and was lucky enought to catch the last two leaving. Their first flight was about 10 yards to the edge of the porch. Then their parents called them into the Hawthorne bushes. All day long you could hear the baby birds calling for food. It will be interesting to see how long the parents continue to feed the babies. The first bird out of the nest is still being fed by the parents.

DSCN4809, originally uploaded by trekr.

I mentioned in an earlier post the mallard ducks that have made swimming in our pool part of their daily routine. I managed to photograph them the other day. Its difficult to get close to them. Check out my other photos on Flickr and you can see what I mean. I forgot to turn off red eye reduction and the blinking flash sent them flying. We’re seeing them less often lately and soon they will move on until next spring. The water is warm enough for the youngest of our children, so “Pool’s open !” (Just as soon as I clean up after the ducks 🙂

DSCN5014, originally uploaded by trekr.

The first baby bird has left the nest this afternoon. About four days early by my estimates. Now that the biggest baby is out of the nest, I can see that there are three left and one egg that didn’t hatch. It didn’t take long for a pair of cardinals to start chasing him, but the parents drove them off. An avid reader of my posts (thanks Mom !) identified these birds as Louisiana Waterthrush. This little bird is used to having his picture taken and didn’t mind me getting so close.

DSCN5003, originally uploaded by trekr.

We’ve had to cut down a few oak trees over the years that died from hypoxylon canker. As stewards of the land, we’ve tried to plant more then we’ve cut. This is a Chinese empress tree in its second year. It’s growing about five feet a year so far. This spring, its doubled in size! I can’t recommend it yet. I’ll let you know what I think of it in a decade or so.